With 7.5 feet of rise, it encompasses nearly 580,000 people and $180 billion of property. With 3.5 feet of sea-level rise, the area subject to annual flooding in New Jersey encompasses about 180,000 people and $80 billion of property. Tools such as Rutgers’ NJFloodMapper and Climate Central’s Surging Seas provide an initial sense of what the implications of these different levels of rise would be. But if more pessimistic models of the Antarctic sensitivity to warming are correct, that range could instead be 4 feet to 8 feet, or more. Unchecked emissions – enough to bring the planetary fever to 7 degrees Fahrenheit or more by the end of the century – might lead to a likely rise of about 2.5 feet to 5 feet in New Jersey. If the world manages to do this in the next half century, then we run a good chance of keeping sea-level rise in New Jersey over the course of this century between 2 feet and 3 feet.īut if emissions continue unchecked on their historic growth trajectory, all bets are off. Stabilizing the climate – at any level of warming, such as the international goals of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) – requires bringing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero.
#RISING TIDE INTERACTIVE INDEEC DRIVER#
These fossil fuel emissions are the primary driver behind a planetary fever of nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, humans have emitted nearly 1.6 trillion tons of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels. This is because of two big unknowns: the course of future greenhouse gas emissions and the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets – especially the Antarctic ice sheet – to warming.
Looking beyond 2050, the range of potential sea-level rise becomes increasingly broad. A recent study by Climate Central and Zillow, using sea-level rise projections produced at Rutgers, found that between 20, nearly 2,700 homes, worth nearly $3 billion, were built on the Jersey Shore (mostly in Ocean and Cape May counties) in areas expected to flood at least annually by 2050.
Over the first half of this century, the Jersey Shore is likely to experience about 1 foot to 2 feet of sea-level rise. With about 600,000 New Jerseyans living within 10 feet of the high tide level in terms of elevation – areas potentially vulnerable to sea-level rise and coastal flooding over the next century – sea-level rise will increasingly affect communities in ways as diverse as land use, infrastructure, property taxes and emergency management. And it exposed about 40,000 New Jerseyans to Superstorm Sandy’s floodwaters who would not have otherwise been affected. Sea-level rise has increased the frequency of minor tidal flooding in shore communities about 20-fold since the 1950s. A higher sea means it takes less of a tide or a storm to cause coastal flooding. We are already feeling the effects of sea-level rise. And this rise is accelerating due to a warming ocean, melting mountain glaciers and shrinking polar ice sheets. Geological records from salt marshes in New Jersey and other sites around the world demonstrate the extraordinary nature of the 20th-century rise in sea level: Both in the global average and locally, it was faster than over any comparable period in at least 3,000 years. This is primarily because the land here is sinking, due to both natural forces – the land was pushed up by a giant ice sheet 20,000 years ago and is now relaxing downward – and to groundwater pumping. In New Jersey, sea level has risen even faster – about 1.4 feet over that same period. Since 1900, global average sea level has risen about 8 inches.